I would like to see the numbers.

If Nvidia sells hardware for $100B with 75% cross margin, and provides $50 billion in backstop for that same hardware, it would be still be nicely profitable deal ($25B) if the backstop capacity would be a total write-off recovering $0. Reselling that capacity in some large discount below already low backstop price would increase the profits.

It's all those pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and Softbank getting into that $500 billion deal that will be hurt.

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

In other words: the investments that were never going to happen are not going to happen.

The Möbius strip of AI financing continues…

wobble wobble

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