Verification Is Not Knowledge: Science needs more than answers
193 points - today at 9:01 AM
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* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_laws_of_planetary_m...
People did not understand how or why they worked, but they switched over to them from the Ptolemaic (Tychonic, etc†) system anyway because the math was easier. It was only later (Newton, Einstein) that we understood the "why" and "how".
†https://tofspot.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-great-ptolemaic-sma...
Fields medalist and as Tao listed as one of the most important mathematicians of our age.
Scholz is known to find „precisely the correct and cleanest way to incorporate all the previously done work and find an elegant formulation for that — and then, because he found really the correct framework, go way beyond the known results“
In a way that man is the complement of an AI, he generates understanding rather than just proofs.
Maybe he is the right template for the mathematicians of the future.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/peter-scholze-and-the-future-...
If you're in academia, you've probably noticed a major shift recently. Research production at an industrial scale through AI.
Grants have "always" been awarded to professors based on quantity multiplied by quality. Now, some professors are churning out 1–3 papers a month with the same group of co-authors. All the grant money goes to them. Grant givers are just only counting the numbers of papers being published.
The Industrial Revolution has hit academia, and some academics are busy arguing for the artisanal value of research while some are creating factories for research.
Thing is, though, verification is knowledge itself. And if we can get to a point where the important questions have answers, we can surely have the verifiers explain those to us in ways we can understand them.
Knowing that something is true or false will at least stop humans wasting time trying to prove or disprove it, and allow them to find a more elegant proof, or investigate the implications of the true/false result.
I wonder if this dichotomy fully captures the value of scientific discoveries. One could argue that their practical impact can be independent of whether humans fully understand how they were reached.
However, even getting truth answers will soon be beyond AI. It is of course making impacts in Math and in publishing in "data heavy" subjects where you can just formally verify, program, and/or munge data.
But in "real science" where we actually need to build a lab, buy supplies, hire personnel, get approval, form physical test harnesses, install sensors in proper locations, calibrate everything, then finally make one measurement, question the whole thing, then finally make a conclusion, AI is of limited benefit.
Yes, it can help speed up coming up with some formulas, spitballing, or checking existing research. It can even help write the jank code for sensor calibration, measurement taking, etc. That's not nothing, but we are _very far_ from meaningful contributions to real experimental hard sciences.
As for math, theoretical physics, computer science, and other "logic based" studies, the question becomes one of benefit to cost of true understanding versus simply knowing something is true.
I'd argue that it paints a starkly negative picture of most science. Once answers are easy to obtain, it seems most people are concluding that actually understanding why its true isn't worth the effort, which means that the question maybe wasn't worth asking.
Its the science equivalent to the recent realization in tech: most ideas suck, your product didn't need more bells and whistles. Actually the engineers pushing back on every shower thought from product was a good thing. The friction that stops you from putting every random-ass feature into your already bloated useless SaaS product was good, and now the sales guy is pushing features to prod for a customer demo. We thought "too many ideas, not enough engineers", we now know "not enough meaningful quality ideas".
In the same way we thought "too many questions, not enough scientists", we now know "not enough real study on meaningful topics".
Okay, it's not quite the same. I could figure out how the thermometer works, but I cannot figure out how the 1 trillion parameter AI works. But the AI didn't give me an answer directly, it gave me a proof that I can run through a verifier. And I could figure out how the verifier works. That is a partial understanding.
The barrier to my understanding is not the verifier. So it's the opaque AI model? But human brains are blackboxes too. I cannot tell what's going on in another person's head when they're writing a proof either. I can only look at their behavior, the language they produce.
An AI provides a proof written in the same symbols humans write in. It's really long and complicated, more than human-written proofs. It would be nice if I had an excuse for my inability to internalize the proof in a timely manner. I could form a community to make the proofs we don't fully understand yet = "not knowledge".
This is delusional self-soothing, and it's just as damaging to my capacity to understand reality as delegating thought to another entity, regardless of whether that entity is a computer or a human.
Is this description AKA. theory vs praxis? Academia vs Engineering?
A broken clock is not correct twice a day.
I propose a two-part approach.
First, autonomous or human-directed AI agents submit their work to a public repository.
Second, the scientific community draws from this pool of results, identifies the important ones and asks the next set of important questions. This work of interpretation, synthesis and question formation should be recognised and rewarded in peer-reviewed academic journals.
"If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants". Including AI.
A bold stand on the P = NP question.